Nearly two years after a 59-14 loss at Twickenham, Eddie Jones will be hoping that his Japan side can take advantage of a much-changed England team in round five of the Nations Championship.
Match News and Current Form
The top end of the Northern Hemisphere table is remarkably tight with England one of three teams having won three of their opening four games. Whilst Steve Borthwick’s side are two points from the summit due to France’s superior bonus points haul, England will be targeting a fourth successive victory this Saturday, something which looked highly unlikely when they lost five games in a row from mid-February to early-July.
Despite this upturn in form, Borthwick has selected only three players, including captain Maro Itoje, in their same starting position for this game as he did in last weekend’s 45-22 victory over Australia. And if this new-look England side can record another victory at Twickenham this weekend, they will remain in contention for a place in the Nations Championship final going into the final round of the group stage.
Japan fell to their third successive Nations Championship defeat with a 28-21 loss against Wales last week and their opening round victory over Italy in Tokyo now seems like a long time ago. Beginning the round with only Fiji beneath them in the Southern Hemisphere group, the Cherry Blossoms are equally only three points from Australia in third but face a tough trip to Murrayfield next week.
Eddie Jones will be desperate to get one over his former employers, encouraging his Japan side to “make the Twickenham sky fall in” this weekend and he has kept faith with nearly all of the side who gave a good account of themselves in Cardiff with debutant Riku Tokito coming in on the wing as the only change to the XV.
Head-to-Head History
England have won all six previous H2Hs against Japan, scoring 52+ points in three of the last four meetings.
Hot Stats and Streaks
England have conceded 3-10 first half points across each of their last three matches.
The team that scored the opening try won all four of England’s Nations Championship games.
Each of Japan’s four Nations Championship matches finished under the main total points handicap.
The first half was the highest scoring half in nine of Japan’s ten matches in 2026.
Key Players to Watch and Missing Players
Ahead of this round, only the injured Will Jordan had scored more tries in this competition than England’s Henry Pollock, who has five from two starts. Warner Dearns is in form for Japan with three tries, including one in each first half, across their last two games.
Ollie Chessum, Seb Atkinson, George Furbank and Immanuel Feyi-Waboso are all out injured for England, as is Inoke Burua for Japan.
Click here to see the latest team selection news for the Nations Championship.
Betting Analysis
Based on previous H2Hs, backing England to score 50+ points looks like a decent approach.
Author: Tom Penn