Sebastian Baez is already struggling with low morale, confidence, and form, and his Asian swing opener did him no favors. Drawn against Carlos Alcaraz in the first round of ATP Tokyo last week, he was comfortably beaten in straight sets.
The former Argentine No. 1 is currently on a three-match losing streak and has not produced anything of note since his run to the final in Bucharest back in April. Over the past few months, he has suffered several demoralizing defeats from winning positions and now holds a 23–23 record for the 2025 season, putting him on the verge of slipping out of the top 50.
Baez received a first-round bye in both of his previous visits to the Shanghai Masters, but his current ranking no longer affords him that privilege. This year he will have to start from the first round for the first time. On his debut in 2023, he reached the third round, while in 2024 his run ended in the second round.
Zhizhen Zhang returned from injury and opened with a promising three-set win in the first round at Hangzhou, raising hopes that he could make up for lost time by capitalizing on this home stretch in China. Unfortunately, his physical level dropped sharply in the following matches, as he fell in straight sets to Dalibor Svrcina in the second round at Hangzhou and then to Terence Atmane in the Beijing opener.
Zhang had a memorable run at the Shanghai Masters in 2023, reaching the round of 16 and pushing Hubert Hurkacz to a tight battle. However, in his other appearances at this tournament he has struggled, suffering five qualifying exits and two first-round defeats.
Head-to-head: Zhizhen Zhang leads 1-0. Zhang is clearly the stronger hardcourt player, particularly in faster conditions, and playing at home gives him an additional boost. The only concern is his fitness, which looked well below the required level in his last two matches.
