Sonay Kartal has been an upset machine in Wuhan, but it is Jelena Ostapenko who presents better value in the odds.
Match News and Form
Jelena Ostapenko rallied from 2-5 in the first set and saved multiple set points before defeating 11th seed Diana Shnaider, 7-6, 6-1, in the quarterfinals. The Latvian, who had not won two matches in a row since Wimbledon coming into Wuhan, reaches her second WTA 1000 semifinal of the year.
Ostapenko had not won more than one match in 23 of her last 28 tournaments in the run-up to this week and had slipped out of the top 30. She had also not won a match in Wuhan since 2017, but now returns to its semifinals after beating Jessica Pegula and Leylah Fernandez in three setters.
Sonay Kartal extends her epic upset spree in Wuhan after defeating world No. 6 Elina Svitolina, 6-2, 2-6, 6-4, in the quarterfinals. Playing just her second tournament since a six-month break, the Brit has now beaten three seeds in a row, starting with Belinda Bencic and Jasmine Paolini.
Kartal was not expected to make such an impact when she landed in Wuhan for just her second tournament since returning from a six-month hiatus. She was playing some of her best tennis before the half-year break, reaching a WTA 1000 quarterfinal in Beijing in October 2025, posting further last-eight appearances in Auckland and Abu Dhabi, and settling for a fourth round in Indian Wells. Ranked in the top 50 in February, she fell outside the top 150 this month.
Head to Head
The series is tied at 1-1. The pair met twice during the 2025 grass-court season in the UK. Jelena Ostapenko prevailed in Eastbourne in straight sets but lost at Wimbledon in three.
Stats and Facts
Jelena Ostapenko lost to Ashleigh Barty when she played the Wuhan semifinals nine years ago.
Ostapenko hasn't been to a final since the April 2025 title in Stuttgart after losing both semifinals this year, in Doha and Eastbourne.
Sonay Kartal is set to play only her second WTA semifinal, two years since her WTA 250 title in Monastir.
Kartal is now on a five-match winning streak against top-50 players, accounting for a third of her career win count.
Betting Analysis
Sonay Kartal has been defying the odds all week, including recording 6-0 sets against both Belinda Bencic and Jasmine Paolini. In fact, the Brit will have the edge going into the encounter, but it is always a hazard to bet against an improving Jelena Ostapenko on familiar ground.