The first awards of the season have recently come out, including the first NBA rookie of the month. The lucky winners are Jared McCain in the East and Jaylen Wells in the West. In other words, No.16 and No.39 in the draft, respectively. Two surprises in absolute terms, particularly the former, who is the top scorer in the 2024 draft and the only player so far to average more than 13 points (16.1).
A successful start to his career was due to a combination of circumstances, however, as his team, the 76ers, were decimated by injuries, which undoubtedly gave him more playing time than expected, but Philly, which won just five of its first 20 games, did not benefit from his contribution.
With the Victor Wembanyama effect, the 2024 NBA draft doesn't have a headliner as flashy as the 'Alien'. But sandwiched between Wemby's 2023 and 2025, in which Cooper Flagg is also an expected phenomenon, this edition has all the makings of being the worst in many, many years.
Indeed, when you look at the list of the last ten Rookies Of the Year, the only one who really stands out is Malcolm Brogdon (and even he won a 6th Men Of the Year title). He's also the only player not to have been an All-Star, along with Wembanyama (who it's hard to imagine not being one this year). But above all, during their rookie year, each of these names showed the potential to become a future star, a real face of the league.
It's not just a question of stats, even if, overall, that part of it is not at all convincing. In an NBA that is increasingly focused on attack, only six rookies managed to score at least 25 points in a game. Dalton Knecht 's 37 points against the Jazz was the most talked-about of the bunch, and although he was in the spotlight because he plays for the Lakers, he was no more than transcendent the rest of the time.
No rookie averaged more than 8 rebounds or 5 assists. Above all, the role of the majority of them has yet to be defined, as none of them play more than 30 minutes. Some are starters, like Wells at Memphis, but that's either in teams that are in the process of rebuilding, or benefiting from numerous injuries. The result is an unpleasant impression that some are there primarily to make up the numbers.
And if we focus on the Top 5, the results are frankly frustrating. Zaccharie Risacher still hasn't completely ruled out competition from De'Andre Hunter, despite being promised a trade to Atlanta. Despite a few flashes of brilliance, Alexandre Sarr's main drawback has been his horrendous percentages in Washington, while Reed Sheppard has been a utility player in Houston. Ron Holland II didn't find his place in Detroit, and only Stephon Castle did honourably in San Antonio, helped by Chris Paul's mentorship.
If you want to compare with previous editions, you have to avoid vintages with one (or more) highly-anticipated headliners. The problem is that there haven't really been any in recent years. That's understandable, given that Zaccharie Risacher's selection as a first pick didn't really stand out on its own. And in previous seasons, we've had designated superstars (Luka Doncic and Trae Young in 2018, Zion Williamson and Ja Morant in 2019, Wembanyama in 2023), hesitations between two big prospects (Anthony Edwards and James Wiseman in 2020, Paolo Banchero and Chet Holmgren in 2022), or a frankly homogeneous crop (Cade Cunningham, Jalen Green, Scottie Barnes and Evan Mobley in 2021). Of all these names, only Wiseman is a failure.
But getting it wrong is one thing, and we're not going to start listing recent disastrous high draft picks (Marvin Bagley III doesn't deserve this). The main feeling when you look at this class on the pitch is that it doesn't have the famous'NBA Ready' label. Players who are finishing their training, and who we know are not yet ready for the responsibilities inherent in their draft ranking. The fact that no member of the Top 5 (or even the Top 10) is directly installed as an indisputable starter is highly significant.
So it's hardly surprising that players like Jared McCain, Jaylen Wells, Dalton Knecht, Yves Missi, Kyle Filipowski and Ryan Dunn are being closely scrutinised and even praised. All drafted after the 15th spot, so already proven steals. Is that enough to have a real career? Some players in this position in the 2023 draft, such as Jaime Jaquez Jr and Brandin Podziemski, have already fallen into line at the start of the season. Nevertheless, there hasn't been a Rookie Of The Year ranked below the 4th draft pick since... Malcolm Brogdon in 2017.
And even then, the No.1 draft pick in 2016, Ben Simmons, had an off-season and took home the Rookie of the Year trophy the following season. The draft class was so weak that a certain Joel Embiid, who was starting his career after more than two and a half years on the sidelines through injury, and who had only played 31 games, was a finalist for the trophy that season. Even so, this crop included some big names such as Jaylen Brown, Brandon Ingram, Domantas Sabonis, Jamal Murray and Pascal Siakam. But at the time, the impression was that the players were talented but still too green for the big time.
The same impression as this season, but without the talent. The NBA has evolved, and it's all about shooting, but only one (Knecht) is above 40% from three-point range. As far as True Shooting Percentage is concerned, once again, the Laker is the only one to have more than 60%. But he still has a lot of gaps in his game (which is logical in a way) and is not an indisputable starter, despite being one of the favourites for the Rookie Of the Year award.
And that's the problem: at the moment, the rookies at the top of the list are there because of some form of hype(Knecht), or because of a combination of circumstances that we think will stop him(McCain), or because of some form of consistency without playing at a very high level(Wells). No one is truly superior, and of course there is still time to explode. But you can't really see a future star in the bunch, and stars are what the NBA is built on. If no great talent really blossoms, this year will not go down in history...