Why Liverpool have a chance to upset the odds against Inter in the Champions League

Liverpool prepare for their Champions League tie at Inter Milan
Liverpool prepare for their Champions League tie at Inter MilanTim Markland / PA Images / Profimedia

Liverpool desperately need to get their 2025/26 season back on track, so the Champions League fixture on Tuesday evening away at an in-form Internazionale couldn't really have come at a worse time.

The Italian giants have lost just three of the last 17 games in all competitions, and are one of four clubs on 12 points in the Champions League table, just three behind outright leaders, Arsenal

Inter unbeaten in 18 UCL home games

They're also unbeaten at home in their last 18 UCL games (W15, D3), which included that epic semi-final against Barcelona last season and is the longest current streak of any team in the competition.

The Reds are down in 13th position at present, but are only three points further back, so a win at San Siro would see them draw level with their hosts.

Unfortunately for Arne Slot, their form in general doesn't bode well for what's expected to be a huge test for the Merseyside outfit.

They were hammered at Anfield 4-1 by PSV in their last UCL game, and two draws against Sunderland and Leeds United in their last two games also indicate just how low collective confidence remains.

Salah left out

After his astonishing outburst at the weekend, Mo Salah has been left out of the squad entirely and may well have played his last game for the club, whilst Cody Gakpo's injury sees him sidelined, and Wataru Endo, Federico Chiesa and Jeremie Frimpong are also out.

The Egyptian King clearly felt aggrieved at being left on the bench again by his manager for the fixture at Leeds; however, with just five goals in all competitions in 25/26, it's difficult to argue with Slot's reasoning.

Inter's talisman, Lautaro Martinez, has fared much better and has found the net in each Champions League match played at home in this calendar year. 

As a result, he's sat at the top of the list for most goals in the competition for his team this season, but can also claim the most total shots (17) and the most on target (nine).

Should he score against Liverpool, he'd become only the second Inter player in history, after Andriy Shevchenko, to score in six consecutive UCL home games, and a continued lack of solidity in the visitors' central defensive areas might well see some rich pickings for the Argentinian as a result.

Martinez the difference

It was Martinez, of course, who was the difference between the teams the last time that they were paired in the competition. On that Round of 16 occasion in March 2022, the striker scored the only goal of the night in the 61st minute.

Liverpool might also want to pay particular attention to the creativity and work rate of Hakan Calhanoglu. The 31-year-old has created the most chances for Inter (eight), and his ability to find time and space in which to open up the opposition is often a joy to watch. 

With only three goals conceded to date in the competition, only Arsenal can boast a better defensive record than the Nerazzurri, meaning that whoever Slot selects to start the game is likely to have their work cut out in terms of scoring the goals to potentially win the game.

Given that Liverpool have only managed to do so twice from their last 44 shots in the Champions League, that looks as though it could be a tall order for the Premier League side.

History favours Liverpool

Interestingly, however, the Reds have won four of the six previous meetings between the two sides. Of those six matches, only one has seen both teams score; a 3-1 result in Liverpool's favour in the 1964/65 semi-final, first-leg.

Whoever has gone on to win the subsequent five fixtures has done so to nil, so the expectation might well be that it'll be game over once a team finds the net in this game.

Inter v Liverpool - Recent head-to-head results
Inter v Liverpool - Recent head-to-head resultsFlashscore

The last two games at San Siro (March 2008 and February 2022) have seen Liverpool walk away with all three points too, and whilst they're clearly not in their best moment of the season at present, what that shows is they're not overawed by performing at such a storied venue with a partisan atmosphere. 

Aside from Salah, Florian Wirtz hasn't perhaps had quite the impact that everyone expected, though his 16 chances created in this season's competition are the best of any Liverpool player and, therefore, he could still prove crucial on the night.

Szoboszlai's importance is clear

Hugo Ekitike can expect a start up front alongside Alexander Isak; however, neither finds themselves on the top scorers list this season in the UCL. 

That honour falls jointly to captain Virgil van Dijk and Dominik Szoboszlai (two goals each), and the fact that no striker tops the chart is one of Liverpool's major issues in a nutshell.

Inter v Liverpool - Live win probability
Inter v Liverpool - Live win probabilityOpta by Stats Perform

The Hungarian also leads in assists (three) and shots on target (eight), so his importance is clear. Nullify him, and Inter have deprived Liverpool of their most dangerous player in the competition to date.

Ekitike has taken the most total shots (15) but clearly needs to up his game in terms of accuracy, though, as he showed against his former club, Eintracht Frankfurt earlier in the competition, he doesn't need asking twice to get an attempt on goal.

With only two matches left in the league phase after this, the result is a crucial one for both teams.

Jason Pettigrove
Jason PettigroveFlashscore