Why Crystal Palace face an uphill struggle to beat Chelsea in Sunday's London derby

Crystal Palace's Cheick Doucoure and Chelsea's Pedro Neto fight for the ball
Crystal Palace's Cheick Doucoure and Chelsea's Pedro Neto fight for the ballAlexander Canillas / Zuma Press / Profimedia

Crystal Palace head into an important London derby with Chelsea in a state of flux.

With captain Marc Guehi having recently been sold to Manchester City, Oliver Glasner's outburst, when the manager of the Selhurst Park outfit suggested that the first-team was being abandoned by the club ownership, has left his job hanging by a thread.

Palace lacking ambition?

The Austrian will now leave the club in the summer in any event, making the remainder of his stay, for however long that might be, incredibly tenuous.

Guehi follows the likes of Michael Olise and Eberechi Eze out of the club, and the sale of the crown jewels seemingly won't stop there, after star striker Jean-Philippe Mateta also waded into the row engulfing the South London outfit.

He has accused them of lacking ambition and wants to leave in the current transfer window.

To evidence how important he's become to the club, six of Palace’s last seven Premier League goals at Selhurst Park have been scored by Mateta, with the other coming via a Nathan Collins own goal. 

Mateta still the man for the Eagles

Incredibly, you have to go back to September and Eddie Nketiah's goal against Liverpool for the last time a Palace player other than Mateta scored at their home ground.

Since then, 17 players other than the French centre-forward have had a shot without scoring (83 shots, 18 on target, 8.5 xG).

Given that there's only a week left for the Frenchman to be able to ensure a deal goes through, it begs the question as to whether Palace owner, Steve Parish, will play hardball and insist the striker stays until at least the end of the season.

Chelsea have already dealt with their own managerial upheaval, with Liam Rosenior recently replacing Enzo Maresca in the dugout.

At present, it's far too early to deduce which formation and style the 41-year-old will prefer, though it does appear from the outside that he may just be a puppet figure for owners who had seemingly targeted some players they wanted even before Rosenior was considered.

Notwithstanding off the pitch concerns for both clubs, there are three important points up for grabs.

Chelsea on the slide

Chelsea have slid down the Premier League table to sixth, after winning just one of their last five games in the English top-flight (2-0 v Brentford last time out), though they are just two points from Liverpool in fourth.

Palace, meanwhile, are way down in 13th, and only three points ahead of Leeds United in 16th place, and are on a seven-match winless run at present. Further, they've not won at Selhurst Park since defeating Brighton and Hove Albion in November.

They last had a longer winless run between August and October 2024 (eight matches), whilst the last fixture between Palace and Chelsea was a 0-0 draw at Stamford Bridge back in August. 

That was only one of three clean sheets that the Eagles have kept in their last 34 league games against the Blues, and not since March 1983 have they managed two clean sheets in a row against the West Londoners. 

Blues hold the edge

Palace haven't tasted victory against Chelsea in the league since October 2017, during which time they've played 16 matches, losing 13 in a row before drawing the three most recent games. 

Chelsea have also only failed to score in one of their 16 Premier League away games against Palace (W12 D2 L2), doing so in a 1-0 defeat in March 2014.

Crystal Palace v Chelsea - Recent head-to-head results
Crystal Palace v Chelsea - Recent head-to-head resultsFlashscore

Since the start of the 2022/23 season, only Arsenal (97) have won more points in Premier League London derbies than Chelsea (73), while only West Ham (38) have picked up fewer than Palace (45) in that time.

The hosts may at least draw some hope from Chelsea's erratic away record this season, which has seen them win four, draw four and lose three of the 11 Premier League fixtures played on the road.

Injury list rising for both teams 

In terms of injuries, both Enzo Fernandez and Cole Palmer will face late fitness tests to determine whether they'll make Chelsea's matchday squad or not.

Definitely out for the Blues are Filip Jorgensen, Romeo Lavia, Levi Colwill and Tosin Adarabioyo.

Crystal Palace v Chelsea - Live win probability
Crystal Palace v Chelsea - Live win probabilityOpta by Stats Perform

Palace are even worse off, with Caleb Kporha, Eddie Nketiah, Rio Cardines, Daichi Kamada and Cheick Doucoure all missing. 

Guehi's absence will clearly be an issue too, whilst all of Nathaniel Clyne, Daniel Munoz and Ismaila Sarr face late fitness tests, the latter after returning from a successful AFCON tournament with Senegal.

Tight game in prospect if recent matches are a guide

Neither side has scored more than two goals in their last six matches, so this may well be another tight affair. 

Joao Pedro and Cole Palmer were on target against Brentford, and there have been four previous occasions where Chelsea players have scored in a manager’s first two games in charge – Jimmy Floyd Hasselbaink under Claudio Ranieri, Deco under Felipe Scolari, Diego Costa under Antonio Conte and Pedro under Maurizio Sarri.

Chelsea's recent games
Chelsea's recent gamesFlashscore

The former leads the goalscoring charts for the Blues, though it's vice-captain, Fernandez, who appears to be the player stitching everything together, given that he's created the most chances (36), taken the most total shots (41), and had the most shots on target (18).

His excellence in getting forward has therefore allowed midfield partner-in-crime, Moises Caicedo, to do what he does best, and that's breaking up opposition attacks at source.

Crystal Palace's recent games
Crystal Palace's recent gamesFlashscore

Guehi's 1,064 passes to date were the most from an individual for the hosts; however, their collective 77% pass completion rate this season puts them right at the bottom of the pile in this regard.

Against a team that loves to knock the ball around, that's going to be a real problem for Glasner.

As is conceding in the 15 minutes before the end of each half, when Chelsea can be particularly potent.

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Jason Pettigrove
Jason PettigroveFlashscore