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Are Portugal better off without Cristiano Ronaldo? Here's what the numbers say

Cristiano Ronaldo against Ireland
Cristiano Ronaldo against IrelandAndrew Surma / ddp USA / Profimedia

The November international break has many asking whether Portugal are better with or without Cristiano Ronaldo after his red card against the Republic of Ireland and their subsequent 9-1 win over Armenia.

It’s one of the biggest questions in football at the moment. The 40-year-old picked up a straight red card for petulantly swinging an elbow at Dara O’Shea in their 2-0 World Cup qualifier defeat to the Republic of Ireland.

Ronaldo left the camp and flew back to Saudi Arabia, only for his teammates to go on and batter an albeit much weaker Armenia side 9-1 in their final game of the November international break.

So, are Portugal better with or without their greatest ever player in the side?

What are the numbers saying?

On a personal level, the former Man United, Real Madrid, and Juventus forward is the best international footballer of all time, even if he doesn’t have many trophies to show for it, with 143 goals and 37 assists in his 226 games.

With numbers like that, it’s hard to believe that people are even suggesting that Roberto Martinez should drop him ahead of a record sixth World Cup next summer, but we’ve been here before, all the way back in 2022.

When Ronaldo had just left United, and people were asking the very same question at club level, he was benched for Portugal’s World Cup quarter-final against Morocco, which they ultimately lost 1-0, after a string of anonymous performances.

Ronaldo's recent stats
Ronaldo's recent statsFlashscore

Many had expected that to be the end of his international career. They were wrong. Ronaldo has rediscovered his mojo, and since the 2022 World Cup, he has scored 25 goals in 30 games across all competitions.

Portugal have played 36 games in that time, meaning Ronaldo has missed six.

In the games he has featured, Portugal boast a win percentage of 70% and have scored an average of 2.2 goals per game. Without Ronaldo, that win percentage drops to 66.6%, although Martinez’s side have managed to up their goals per game to 4.8, which is quite the jump all things considered.

Of course, six games is a very small sample size, so the numbers can be skewed somewhat; the 9-0 win over Luxembourg does just that. It is quite strange that Portugal have managed to score nine goals on two separate occasions without Ronaldo, though.

What Martinez says

Martinez will know better than anyone if his side are better with or without Ronaldo, and he appears to be of the opinion that the veteran forward still has a very important role to play going into the World Cup.

Speaking after the win over Armenia, the Spaniard said: “We are better with Ronaldo, Nuno Mendes and Pedro Neto.

“The most important thing is that football is a game of mistakes, of difficulties, of resilience, and when some players aren't there, we have to find a way to win. 

“I think the important thing is to have all the important players, but also to have confidence and a clear idea that we can win when certain players aren't in the starting XI.”

Who could step up if Ronaldo was dropped?

Portugal don’t have a proud history of number nines outside of Ronaldo, and their current squad isn’t stacked with options. It would be impossible to outright replace a man with 143 international goals.

PSG’s Goncalo Ramos has been genuinely impressive when he’s had the opportunity to fill in, however. He scored a goal and provided an assist in the win over Armenia and has a decent record at international level with 10 goals in 22 games.

Rafael Leao is another option. The AC Milan forward has undeniable quality, but his inconsistency means he’s yet to reach the elite level. He’s also more of a winger than an out-and-out striker like Ronaldo or Ramos.

Maybe Cristiano Ronaldo Jr will be the one to replace his father, who knows!

Verdict

All evidence suggests Portugal are a better side with Ronaldo in the team, but that shouldn’t distract from the fact that they need to prepare for life without him as best they can.

Ronaldo has already admitted that next year will be his last hurrah for his country. Only after that will we really know how good Portugal are without him.