Match News and Current Form
With the fourth leg of this series ridiculed within some circles as a cynical marketing ploy and not a ‘real’ international, the penultimate game of the All Blacks tour is being treated by some as the one that truly determines who comes out on top. Whilst one team could settle the matter by ultimately winning 3-1, Springboks coach Rassie Erasmus is expecting a “different vibe” to this intense rivalry, not least because it’ll be the first time that many of his players have run out onto the 94,000-capacity FNB Stadium, which has already sold more than 80,000 tickets.
As has been the case throughout the series, Erasmus named his matchday squad days ahead of schedule and may have left it unchanged were it not for the injury to star half Handrè Pollard. Cheslin Kolbe has been moved to fullback to fill in for the injured Damian Willemse, whilst the front row that was named to start last week before being moved to the bench on gameday - Malcolm Marx, Ox Nche and Wilco Louw - have again been named to start.
New Zealand demonstrated a clear fitness edge in the second test in Cape Town but were not able to overcome a ten-point half-time deficit after the Springboks were able to win some consequential penalties at the maul. If the All Blacks pack can tidy up their discipline, boss Dave Rennie should draw plenty of confidence from the fact they scored two tries to nought after half-time in the second test and have already crossed the line nine times in this series.
Rennie has shaken up his forward pack by dropping veteran Codie Taylor and promoting his understudy Asafo Aumua to the run-on side, whilst Sam Darry has replaced Fabian Holland in the number five jersey. Peter Lakai will also get a start in the pack after Simon Parker was omitted from the matchday squad. The backline remains unchanged with Leroy Carter and Will Jordan on the wings, Jordie Barrett and Quinn Tupaea between them, and Damian McKenzie at fullback.
Head-to-Head History
South Africa now have a 4-2 lead in this matchup since the end of their famous 2023 World Cup final, winning three of the four games that they hosted. Only two of the last nine H2Hs produced more than 55 total points.
Hot Stats and Streaks
South Africa won the race to ten points in six of seven matches this year.
South Africa have a 5-0 record in 2026 when they score the opening try.
New Zealand lost five of their last seven matches as a betting outsider.
Six of New Zealand’s nine games this year finished under the total points spread.
Key Players to Watch and Missing Players
Springboks outside centre Jesse Kriel is part of an elite group of only nine Tier 1 players to score tries in at least four internationals this year, despite appearing in only six games. All Blacks winger Leroy Carter forced his way into the starting XV with some excellent tour performances and added a second test try to ones against the Bulls and Stormers.
Handrè Pollard and Damian Willemse headline South Africa’s major absences, whilst Cortez Ratima is New Zealand’s only injury.
Click here to see the matchday squads for both teams.
Betting Analysis
There’s a long head-to-head trend that points towards this game having under 55.5 total points.